Chesapeake Bay Summer Forecast: 2010

For the past several years, Chesapeake Bay scientists have collaborated with EcoCheck (NOAA-UMCES partnership) to forecast Chesapeake Bay summer dissolved oxygen and harmful algal blooms conditions, weeks in advance, based on flow and nutrient loading conditions through May. Ecological forecasts provide resource managers with information that can be used to guide restoration, enable proactive communication of Bay conditions, and help direct research activities.

New methods used for anoxia and hypoxia forecasts

For 2010, we are providing a new anoxia forecast, which divides the data into early summer (June to mid-July) and late summer (mid-July to September). We are also providing a July and August hypoxia forecast, along with the original July hypoxia forecast. These forecasts are generated by different Chesapeake Bay researchers and use different methods.

Anoxia forecast
EcoCheck has collaborated with several scientists throughout the Bay to better understand summertime mainstem anoxia. The 2010 anoxia forecast is supported through current research at Johns Hopkins University, Old Dominion University, UMCES-Horn Point Lab, and the Chesapeake Bay Program. This forecast uses the same basis of the previous anoxia forecasts—nitrogen loads—but adds other elements that may provide a better understanding of anoxia in the mainstem Bay. Specifically, wind direction data were incorporated. Additionally, the forecast was divided into early summer and late summer predictions because for the past several years there has been a noticeable change in anoxic volume following wind events in late June and early July.

Hypoxia forecast
EcoCheck has collaborated with Don Scavia and his group at the University of Michigan to provide a July hypoxia forecast each year. This is the fourth year that the forecast is available. This forecast uses Susquehanna January through May total nitrogen loads to predict July hypoxia.

EcoCheck has collaborated with Younjoo Lee at the Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, UMCES, to provide a July through August hypoxia forecast. This new forecast uses different parameters, such as chlorophyll a and wind to predict the volume of hypoxic water in the mainstem.

Click on the map or indicator icon below for the 2010 summer ecological forecast:

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